Tankies, Vatniks, and the Horseshoe Theory

The more you go on social media learning about Kremlin propaganda, you will encounter a few terms, mainly “tankies” and “vatniks.” They tend to be used interchangeably but these terms will explain why two different famous people who are around the same age—celebrity businessman/former US president Donald Trump and former Pink Floyd bassist Roger Waters—seem to side with Russia. Both came from very different backgrounds with different life experiences. Both became famous in very different fields. Donald Trump has never shown any signs of musical talent while Roger Waters is not interested in putting his name on buildings nor starring in reality TV shows. Both would probably disagree with each other on nearly every other issue. Yet they side with Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Roger Waters is an example of a tankie. A tankie is defined as a left-leaning person who sides with Russia. Why would that person side with Russia? Because that person still remember the days when Russia was known as the Soviet Union and it had its entire economy and society based on communism. While most leftists living in the West were not pro-Soviet or pro-communist, there was a subset of leftists who thought that Marxism was awesome and Soviet communism was paradise. Most of their idolatry of Soviet communism was based on naivety and idealism instead of reality. Some of them had never set foot inside of the Soviet Union or any other communist country—they got their favorable impressions based on propaganda. Even though Russia had officially abandoned communism at the same time that the Soviet Union fell, tankies still stubbornly hold on to that nostalgic time when there was communism in Eastern Europe. They actually believe the Russian propaganda lie that Ukraine is run by Nazis (while ignoring the fact that Ukraine has a Jewish president who lost relatives in the Holocaust). They are hoping that Russia can successfully “denazify” Ukraine so the whole Eastern European region can undergo some kind of a communist revival, even though it’s highly unlikely as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power.

Donald Trump is an example of a vatnik. A vatnik is defined as a right-leaning person who sides with Russia. Why would that person side with Russia? Because that person is more attracted to authoritarianism than democracy and Russia is currently ruled by an authoritarian dictatorship. The vatnik wishes that his/her country could also be an authoritarian one because democracy can be too unruly, especially with the so-called “undesirables” (mainly feminists, LGBTQ people, and people of color) demanding their equal rights. The vatnik loves the fact that Vladimir Putin can get everything done his way without much opposition from the Duma (which is the Russian equivalent of Congress or Parliament) while ordinary people can be arrested and sentenced to long prison terms for protesting on the streets. The vatnik loves the fact that Russia has decriminalized its own domestic violence laws and has cracked down on LGBTQ rights. To a vatnik, Russia is everything that his/her own country should be.

Many times the terms “tankies” and “vatniks” are used interchangeably because both types side with Russia. How is it that people like Roger Waters and Donald Trump are siding with Russia for different reasons? There is a theory in political science that’s known as the Horseshoe Theory. While the Wikipedia has a full explanation of the Horseshoe Theory, here is a simpler way to explain it. Take a horseshoe and display it upside down.

At the top of the horseshoe is the center. That represents a person who is a centrist or moderate. He/she might be liberal on some issues and conservative on others. The person is generally a very civic-minded one who makes a habit of voting in elections and may sometimes volunteer for a politician’s campaign only if that politician really personally resonates with him/her. The person rarely takes part in protest demonstrations or signing petitions or lobbying elected officials unless it is on an issue that directly affects him or her on a personal level (such as a proposed road construction that could negatively impact that centrist’s own neighborhood). Basically that person is a middle-of-the-road kind of person when it comes to politics.

Lower on the horseshoe is the left and right. This represents the left wing and right wing of politics. As you can see in the below graphic, there is a wide gulf between the left and right. A left winger and right winger rarely agree on anything. If you have some relatives who are left wingers and other relatives who are right wingers and they are all passionate about their political beliefs, you can expect very heated arguments at your next family get-together holiday dinner.

Going even lower on the horseshoe you have the far left and far right. A far leftist person has beliefs that are even further left than a regular leftist. If a leftist believes in a social democratic system that’s similar to the ones in the Scandinavian countries, a far leftist believes in hardcore Marxist-Leninist communism. A far right wing person has beliefs that are even further right than a regular right winger. If a right winger believes that capitalism is the way to go with some laws to regulate businesses (but not too many laws that could cripple how a business operates), a far right winger will believe in a complete laissez-faire capitalism system with no regulatory laws at all regarding such things as worker safety while also being a fervent believer in Social Darwinism when it comes to attitudes towards workers.

But if you look at the horseshoe, you’ll see that there is less of a chasm between the far left and far right than there is between the left and right. Under the Horseshoe Theory, a far left and far right person will agree on the same issue but for different reasons. Take the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack followed by the Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. A far left person favors the war because that person sees Hamas as freedom fighters who are battling on behalf of all Palestinians while attacking Israel, whom that far leftist strongly believes that it is an apartheid state. A far right person favors the war because that person is a Christian Nationalist who believes that this war will kickstart events that have been foretold in the Book of Revelations in the Bible and that person hopes to be raptured into heaven.

Likewise, when it comes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a far left person favors Russia because that person is still stuck in the past at a time when Russia was a communist country known as the Soviet Union or the USSR while refusing to see Russia as it really is today. A far right person favors Russia because that person is so enamored with Putin’s authoritarian tendencies and that person has bought the Kremlin propaganda about Ukraine being ruled by a cocaine-addicted sex perverted Jewish Nazi who is way too lenient on those pesky LGBTQ people. 

In future entries I’ll highlight tankies and vatniks who are living embodiments of the Horseshoe Theory in action.

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